In the last newsletter, I mentioned the updated method of counting migration by Stats NZ. The net number (inbound migration less outflows) went down by roughly 30% to 43,400.
You would think that NZ doesn’t require that many extra properties to accommodate new people.
However, I’m pasting below the numbers by Tony Alexander who pointed out that you may be wrong.
Some online commentators have been saying that because the estimated net migration inflow in the past year was 43,000 and not the over 60,000 estimate using the old departure cards that there is far less pressure on the Auckland housing market than thought. Not so fast.
The new migration data are available from the start of 2001. They show on average an annual net migration gain of 28,208 people. The old method shows an annual average gain over the same period of 27,356.
The new method shows migration driven population growth since the start of 2001 of 506,233 people. The old method shows 486,785. The population boost is bigger, not smaller!
There is no basis for claiming that the new migration data imply less of a housing shortage in Auckland than previously thought.
What do you think is the perfect migration number for New Zealand? Let me know by replying to this email.
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